Tagged: Nokia

The Impact of Groupthink in Decision Systems


NASA 0


“Together with his identical twin brother, Scott, he has laid the groundwork for the future of space exploration as the subjects of an unprecedented NASA study on how space affects the human body, which is featured in Scott’s New York Times best-selling memoir, Endurance: A Year in Space, A Lifetime of Discovery.”

“Currently, Mark is on the Commercial Crew Safety Board at Space X […] and is the co-founder of World View, a full-service commercial space launch provider.”

Endeavour to Succeed. College of DuPage, Department of Physics. February 14 2019.


NASA 6


I managed to attend Captain Mark Kelly’s talk in Chicago just the day before I was leaving for Barcelona’s Mobile World Congress. M. Kelly’s presence and insightful remarks commanded both admiration and utmost respect.

Among many other fascinating topics, he discussed NASA’s None of US is as Dumb as All of Us as a reminder of the negative impact of ‘groupthink‘ in the context of faulty decision making. Most specifically, he referred to dramatic mistakes leading to the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, which disintegrated upon re-entry in 2003.


“Large-scale engineered systems are more than just a collection of technological artifacts. They are a reflection of the structure, management, procedures, and culture of the engineering organization that created them.”

“They are also, usually, a reflection of the society in which they were created. The causes of accidents are frequently, if not always, rooted in the organization—its culture, management, and structure.”

“Blame for accidents is often placed on equipment failure or operator error without recognizing the social, organizational, and managerial factors that made such errors and defects inevitable.”

Nancy G. Leveson, MIT. Technical and Managerial Factors in the NASA Challenger and Columbia Losses: Looking Forward to the Future. Controversies in Science and Technology Volume 2, Mary Ann Liebert Press, 2008.


NASA 1Groupthink is part of the taxonomy of well-known cognitive biases and takes hold when divergent thinking and disagreement are discouraged (and even repressed) as part of group dynamics.

Hindsight is 20/20 and, statistically speaking, ‘black swan’ events are characterized by seemingly random surprise factors. Groupthink can obfuscate the early detection of predictors such as leading outliers and anomalies, which left unattended can overwhelm a given system over time… and be the source of cascading effects and critical failure.

Groupthink’s negative impact compromises any best intentions such as organizational cohesiveness in the spirit of consensus, agility, productivity, timely project progress and de-escalation management.

Often times, there might be neither adequate situational and risk awareness nor a basis for sense making drawing from the comparative analysis that comes with diligent scenario planning.


Individuals and organizational cultures with a succesful track record can also experience complacency. Over-confidence fosters the sort of behaviors and decisioning that served the group well in the past.

Though, when in the mix of a changing environment defined by new parameters under the radar, only operating within the perimeter of a given set of core competences and comfort zones, makes those specific behaviors blindsight and betray the team’s mission and purpose.

Many plans do not survive first contact (or a subsequent phase for that matter) as their implementation creates ‘ripple effects’ of various shapes and propagating speeds. Some of that can be experienced as ‘sudden risk exposure.’ Once passed the ‘point-of-no-return,’ if that challenge is met with neither contingency planning nor the ability to timely course correct, pivot or even deploy a basic safety-net offsetting the impact, the project fails to ‘cross the chasm’ and is headed for what’s technically known as the ‘valley of death.’


This was one of the key issues discussed by Clyton M. Christiansen when I took his Harvard class on the ‘Innovator’s Dilemma,’ and is also a key point behind Risto Siilasmaa’s ‘Paranoid Optimism’ as well Paul Romer’s ‘Conditional Optimism,’ all of which advocate for scenario planning and sensing optimization to be able to calibrate or re-assess the path forward.


“Michael Shermer stated in the September 2002 issue of Scientific American, ‘smart people believe weird things because they are skilled at defending beliefs they arrived at for nonsmart reasons.”

Groupthink can also manifest itself by means of ‘eco chamber’ effects’ as misguided consensus amplifies what becomes a “self-serving” bias. That is, in effect, a closed feedback loop process that magnifies logical fallacies. These can come across as reasonable enough postulates, though if based on rushed judgement and selective focus they can also suffer from ‘confirmation bias.’ This is the case when new evidence is only used to back-up the existing belief system rather than share new light.


In the context of Decision Support Systems and Cognitive Analytics, the above reasoning deficits become root causes of errors impacting operations. That can involve both (a) Human-Human and (b) Human-Machine interactions, as well as impacting programming work resulting in (c) biased algorithms and automation pitfalls when left unsupervised.


NASA 3


REFERENCES

Carisa Callini. Human Systems Engineering. NASA, August 7 2017. https://www.nasa.gov/content/human-systems-engineering

Carisa Callini. Spaceflight Human Factors. NASA, December 19 2018. https://www.nasa.gov/content/spaceflight-human-factors

Clayton M. Christensen. The Innovator’s Dilemma. Harvard Business Review Press, 1997.

COD Welecomes Astronaut Mark Kelly. Daily Herald, February 13 2019. https://www.dailyherald.com/submitted/20190201/cod-welcomes-astronaut-mark-kelly-feb-17

Geoffrey Moore. Crossing the Chasm. Haper Collins, 1991.

MIT Experts Reflect on Shuttle Tragedy. MIT News, February 3 2003. http://news.mit.edu/2003/shuttle2

Tim Peake. The Astronaut Selection Test Book. Century. London, 2018.

Scott Kelly. Endurance: A Year in Space, a Lifetime of Discovery. Knopf. New York, 2017.

Scott Kelly. Infinite Wonder. Knopf. New York, 2018.

Steve Young. Astronaut: ‘None of Us is as Dumb as All of Us.’ USA Today – Argus Leader, May 13, 2014. https://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2014/05/13/astronaut-none-us-dumb-us/9068537/

Will Knight.  Biased Algorithms are Everywhere, and No One Seems to Care. MIT Technology Review, July 12 2017. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608248/biased-algorithms-are-everywhere-and-no-one-seems-to-care/

 

NOKIA HFE18 Conference (2) GI: Genuine Intelligence


Every once in a while we get to experience Murphy’s (dreaded) Law. This time around that had to do with stability issues with a media webcasting platform. We are now working on rescheduling NOKIA HFE18 under a different format. In parallel, we are also kicking off planning for HFE19… and we will take full advantage of lessons learned.


HFE18 Banner

Ref: Nokia HFE18 Conference (1) #MakeTechHuman


We regret any inconvenience that this eleventh hour change in plans might cause, and remain extremely grateful to both speakers and volunteers who have already invested time and efforts, which should not go to waste.

In the meantime, I’d like to volunteer just a handful of insights on the session that I was scheduled for and, therefore, keep the discussion going. The objective is to further improve what’s already available and allow for an even better session when we get to reconvene. Here is my session’s abstract to begin with.


THE SOFT & HARD NATURE OF ANYTHING DIGITAL

“Our quest to deliver productivity tools yielding operational excellence for DSPs, Digital Service Providers leads to the design of signature experiences by innovating in the process.”

“The Studio at Nokia Software’s Solutions Engineering is set to work with deceptively simple techniques and elegant sophistication… because neither oversimplification nor self-defeating complexity allow end-to-end systems to efficiently operate at digital speed and global scale.”

“This discussion intersects the soft and hard natures of dynamic systems by modeling Human Machine Systems (HMS) and the design of cybernetics. This practice focuses on critical success factors for the early acceptance and broader adoption of emerging technologies.”

“The work at the Studio embraces a renewed approach to QbD, Quality by Design, which is set to left-shift and unveil instrumental considerations at early design stages. The result is Nokia Studio’s QXbD, Quality Experiences by Design, optimizing for customer delight rather than table-stakes customer satisfaction.”


GI4HMS Jose de Francisco


NI – WHAT IS NATURAL INTELLIGENCE? At the time of writing this, we humans possess NI, Natural Intelligence. NI involves naturally developed cognitive functions and models leveraged by the sort of biological beings, which humans happen to be. Intelligence (a) captures, (b) generates, (c) applies and (d) evolves knowledge. Our individual and collective brainpower can be gauged in terms of (e) skills and (f) talent levels, jointly with an understanding of (g) the underlying decisioning process and (h) our perceived experiences in context.


AI – WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE? Intelligence that is not naturally occurring, simulated knowledge in other words. This is generated by programmable artifacts consuming, processing and producing data under closed loop models. Whether working with individual or networked machine intelligence, there is neither information derived from mindfulness nor the type of general purpose sense making that match those of the human experience. The year is 2018… and that’s where state of the art is today.


GI4HMS Jose de Francisco 2.jpg


GI – WHAT IS GENUINE INTELLIGENCE? Earlier in the year I introduced this topic at Design Thinking 2018 (plenary session) and at IEEE Emerging Technologies Roundtable (invitation only workshop.) Coincidentally, both were held in Austin, TX, back in May. I proposed thinking about GI as the outcome of NI powered by AI.

By the way, “genuine” means acting in bonafide. To be clearer: with honesty and without the intention to deceive. Given the trade-offs (pros and cons) that NI and AI bring to the table, GI gets us a step closer to productive bonafide systems.

GI is, therefore, the outcome of purposely crafting optimal technology solutions that augment human possibilities. This is addressed by Human Factors Engineering interdisciplinary science given HFE’s holistic approach and focus on value driven Human-Machine-Systems, HMS.

Quick side note: those of you into Lean and Lean Six Sigma can approach this topic with Jikoda (autonomation.) Ditto for anyone working on Human-in-the-Loop Computing, Affective Computing, RecSys (Recommender Systems,) Human Dynamics and Process Mining with Machine Learning or, better yet, xAI, Explainable Artificial Intelligence.


DDESS Nokia Studio


DDESS – The most tangible design work entails the delivery of DDESS, Digital Decision & Execution Support Systems. This is where GI gets interesting because we need to apply new optics to take a fresh look at what Operational Excellence is (and is not) moving forward.

In a nutshell DDESS’ purpose is to reveal and inform decisions and to make decisions, all in context. But, I will pause here as this topic will be better covered in subsequent posts… just one more thought: DDESS addresses decision support for (NI) humans, (AI) machines, and (GI) human-machine systems. Coming to terms with that one insight alone becomes a critical success factor.


Some other thought… it turns out that, in today’s day and age, projects that are techno-centric heavy only succeed a fraction of the time, 10% or so by some estimates. Selective memories tend to focus and celebrate the 10% that make it… but that is a terrible ROI, Return on Investment, which inflicts (1) severe technical debt, (2) latency costs in systems engineering and (3) a huge opportunity cost as funding and good efforts could have been put to work for more productive endeavours.

By many other well documented and more recent accounts, HCD, Human Centered Design, happens to flip that ratio as designers are obsessed with optimizing for user acceptance and frictionless adoption from day one. HFE takes painstaking work on purposeful and value driven technological solutions where a smart combination of Outside-IN-innovation and Inside-OUT-ingenuity happens to make all the difference.

 

Nokia HFE18 Annual Conference (1) #MakeTechHuman


We are gearing up for NOKIA HFE, our annual conference focusing on that it takes to create technologies that deliver unique value by optimizing for early user acceptance and broader adoption.

Human Centered Design (HCD) is the practice addressing the users journeys and technology lifecycles. Human Factors Engineering’s (HFE’s) is the holistic and interdisciplinary science focusing on optimal technological solutions that #MakeTechHuman, which intersects psychological, physiological and sociological factors.



BEING DIGITAL is this year’s theme. As shared in the above brochure, Bell Labs’ Claude Shannon, the father of information theory, first addressed the meaning of “bit” in his landmark paper published in 1948. Just a year earlier, John Karlin, a fellow Bell Labs pioneer, set up the first Human Factors Engineering department in industry. Their combined effort set the stage for today’s digital experiences.

More than seven decades later we get together to explore what “being digital” is now about. This year’s discussion takes place in the context of game changing and pervasive “Digital Transformation” initiatives across industry and public sectors.


CHi RYAN

Chirryl-Lee Ryan is Idean’s Head of Studio in New York, and this year’s keynote speaker.

Chi is an transdisciplinary design practitioner, writer, speaker, coach, and leader, specializing in experience design. Chi believes that design can help everyone live better, happier lives, and to do so, she merges different design disciplines to produce radical outcomes for humans – and humanity.

As Head of Studio at Idean, a global experience design company, Chi evangelizes a mantra of endless curiosity, fearless execution, and purposeful impact, and as host of the This is HCD Podcast, she is creating a continuous conversation about the future of design. Chi’s goal is to arm as many people as possible with the skills, tools, and confidence they need to create the change they want to see in the world.


Dan Kraemer

HOW TO PROTOTYPE A NEW DIGITAL BUSINESS

“Through the lens of his recent work in guiding leading global companies through digital transformation initiatives, IA Collaborative Founder and Chief Design Officer Dan Kraemer will discuss how to bring a Design Thinking approach to digital innovation – specifically, how to combine user experience, emerging technologies and profit models to prototype entirely new and sustainable digital businesses.”

As Founder and Chief Design Officer at global design and innovation consultancy IA Collaborative, Dan Kraemer is an internationally recognized brand, product, interactive and architectural experience designer who works with some of the world’s most successful companies and brands – including Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines, Samsung, GE, Nike, and Hyatt. Dan leads IA Collaborative’s multidisciplinary design team to identify unseen human needs, frame breakthrough opportunities and drive systemic solutions to commercialization.

His work has been recognized by the International Design Excellence (IDEA) Awards, GOOD DESIGN™ Awards, the Red Dot International Design Awards, the iF World Design Awards and the Design Intelligence Awards. Dan’s work has been featured by Wired, Fast Company, Forbes, the BBC, Branding Magazine and Innovation Magazine, and he is a frequent lecturer on the national and international stage.


cropped-Jose-de-Francisco-LinkedIn-3

THE SOFT & HARD NATURE OF ANYTHING DIGITAL

“Our quest to deliver productivity tools yielding operational excellence for DSPs, Digital Service Providers leads to the design of signature experiences by innovating in the process.”

“The Studio at Nokia Software’s Solutions Engineering is set to work with deceptively simple techniques and elegant sophistication… because neither oversimplification nor self-defeating complexity allow end-to-end systems to efficiently operate at digital speed and global scale.”

“This discussion intersects the soft and hard natures of dynamic systems by modeling Human Machine Systems (HMS) and the design of cybernetics. This practice focuses on critical success factors for the early acceptance and broader adoption of emerging technologies.”

“The work at the Studio embraces a renewed approach to QbD, Quality by Design, which is set to left-shift and unveil instrumental considerations at early design stages. The result is Nokia Studio’s QXbD, Quality Experiences by Design, optimizing for customer delight rather than table-stakes customer satisfaction.”

Jose de Francisco is a Senior Creative Director at Nokia Software Group. His 20+ year experience encompasses global award-winning projects that entail multi-disciplinary leadership responsibilities. Jose is a Distinguished Member of Technical Staff (DMTS) and has worked with Bell Labs on next generation platforms for mobile networks.

He is a Member of the Advisory Board at MIT’s Institute for Data Systems and Society (IDSS) and is the recipient of an MBA in International Marketing and Finance (MBA/IMF) from Chicago’s DePaul University as a Honeywell Europe Be Brilliant Scholar. Jose also holds a postgraduate degree in Human Factors Engineering from BarcelonaTech (UPC) and developed his passion for innovation at Massana Art &Design Center’s Industrial Design program. His thoughts and endeavours can be followed on innovarista.org.


JC Grubbs

DON’T BE DIGITAL

“The motivation to make our businesses more digital often cause us to miss the mark. Business transformation, and “being digital”, isn’t about technology, it’s about becoming more human.”

“In this presentation I’d like to share what I believe should be the driving forces for any company in this era of technology, data, and sometimes noise. Together let’s explore how we translate our humanity into the things we create.”

JC Grubbs is the CEO and founder of DevMynd, a strategy, design, and custom technology firm in Chicago and San Francisco. He has spent his career working to improve the way that technology is designed, built, and delivered. With a focus on human-centered and inclusive design, his company has worked to solve meaningful challenges for organizations like the Department of Defense, Motorola Solutions, Verizon, and AbbVie.


Iana Kouris

EMPLOYEE EXPERIENCE

“Employee experience (EX) is recognized as a key competitive advantage and a prerequisite to deliver outstanding user experience (UX) and customer experience (CX). Companies that invest in EX outperform those that don’t in terms of financial and operational results.”

“Together with Human Resources (HR) colleagues, we have embarked on a journey to make HR our Chief Employee Experience Office. We are applying a Service Design approach, which is revealing human-centered perspectives as we look into our processes and tools from the employee & line manager point of view.”

“User interviews and workshops identified key pain points and game-changing ideas to take EX to new levels: aadequate digital channels and user interfaces are of the essence. The question that we are currently working on and will openly discuss in this session is: “how might we provide the most insightful & engaging digital experience to further personal & career development?”

As a Design Lead at Nokia, I am driving design-led transformation across the company by applying design approach to management and technology challenges. I believe that design is and will remain central for our future, infusing human focus, accelerating learning and fostering collaboration. I have 10+ years of experience in business and creative roles in Telecommunication, High Tech and management consulting, including 5+ years with McKinsey & Company Inc. My education background spans between Business, Mathematics, Philosophy, Fine Arts and Music.


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